CalvStar

Theory, History and Future

Theory

Choose any football league (domestic or international) and go through each of the fixtures for that day. The CalvStar site concentrates on the English Premier League, Champions League and International Fixtures but the theory holds ture on any league.

On the Correct Score market check the price for 2-1 and 1-2 and if both of those results are 11 (decimal odds) or more then place an equal stake on each result

For example

• Back 0.5pts Correct Score
• Chelsea v Man Utd 2-1 & 12 & 1-2 @ 15

This means your total stake for this game is 1pt (0.5pts on each result). There are 3 possible outcomes (well there are an infinate number of outcomes but we will concentrate on 3). Chelsea 2-1 Man U, Chelsea 2-0 Man U and Chelsea 1-2 Man Utd

• Chelsea 2-1 Man U - WIN 5pts = 5.5pts (2-1 bet) -0.5pts (1-2 bet)
• Chelsea 2-0 Man U - LOSE 1pt = -0.5pts (2-1 bet) -0.5pts (1-2 bet)
• Chelsea 1-2 Man U - WIN 6.5pts = -0.5pts (2-1 bet) +7pts (1-2 bet)

If one of the results odds are less then 11 then ignore the fixture and move onto the next one. On an normal Premier League weekend there are between 2-6 games that fall into this category

History

The first time this bet was placed on the site was on 29th October for the Tottenham v Arsenal derby. On that occasion the final score was 1-1 and so we lost our bet the idea intrigued us in picking a winner from a close match-up. Nothing more came of the idea until the end of the season when....to be frank Mappy hadn't done any research and flat bet the whole Premier League weekend on Week 38 with 2-1 bets. 2 of the matched came in with quite weighty profits meaning we were 5.5pts profit from the week. We then continued this form on Week 39Week 39 when CalvStar covered all of the League 1 games while Mappy covered the Premier League again. CalvStar earnt 8.5pts from his bets while Mappy earnt 8pts from the Premier League.....we then realised that the bookies were under pricing this result and in the close season decided to hone the theory of this bet as we realised that running this bet on all games was not an the optimum way. This was basically to remove any matched where one of the odds was below 11 (such as a big favourite playing at home the odds for 2-1 are usually between 8.4-9.8) as the pay-off was not good enough to warrant the stake.

From Week 22 of the following season we implemented this theory on the Premier League for the rest of the season and then for every season subsequent.

This bet has consistantly turned a profit year on year....the bookies are still over-pricing this result and we are now looking into expanding this bet into other leagues to see if this theory holds strong....so far it works in the Premier League, Champions League and International football.

The Future

The future of the bet is.....well continue as you are until the bookies drop the price on this result in the Premier League. We are currently researching the prospect of introducing this theory onto other leagues. The best types of league are ones with a smallish number of fixtures.....League 1 and League 2 have probably to many fixtures to use and so we are currently looking into La Ligue, Serie A and Ligue 1 to see if these are viable. We are also researching the prospect of 3-2 as a correct score after a glut of these in the opening 6 weeks of the Premier League......average odds of 36-45 are big enough to get us interested and so finding a theory of backing this successfully is already in operation.