CalvStar

MatchDay Semi Final 2nd Leg

Not a bad start to the week last night with a 1pt loss....I'll continue with the bets I mentioned yesterday (Pens, 2-1 and HT/FT) but here are my thougths on the actual game itself

Chelsea v Liverpool

I'm already pretty much commited to a Chelsea victory tonight as I have backed them to qualify before the 1st leg. This game has much more chance of my standard bets occuring as Liverpool have to look for a goal to go through meaning it should be a bit more open.

I'm torn in the bookings stake......the referee is certainly capable of hitting a big number but 9pts and over is 1.91 which is a bit skinny for my liking. I would rather take a couple of players to be booked at bigger odds.

One way or another there is going to be tears tonight.....Terry is 1 booking away from missing the final and I have a bad feeling for him for some reason....the 5 on offer for him to be shown a card is therefore to tempting

On a similar vein Gerrard and Carragher are also a booking away from missing the final and are also a similar price so I will take those also.

I have noticed referees being a lot more leniant on players who may miss the final because of a suspension but these are 3 key players for both teams and emotion will be high and a rash challenge could see them go in the book and out bet landed

General Bets

A lot of excitment should be generated this week with the 2nd legs of 2 evenly poised games coming to a climax. Personally I'll be tuning in for betting purposes and to watch losing fans cry but where are the value bets?

2nd leg ties are usually a little more open for obvious reasons and therefore the stable 2-1 bets will be out in force. This will also be doubled up with my personal favourite of the HT/FT bets that seem to have a much better strike rate in the 2nd leg....both ties have a great opportunity to hit and I'm quietly confident. The only other excitment that could occur is of course penalties....last year Liverpool got past Chelsea with the aid of spot kicks and who knows that could happen again. With those 6 bets (2 x 2-1's, 2 x HT/FT and 2 x Pens) already in the bag what do I think about the individual games?

Man U v Barcelona

I have to admit I only managed 45 minutes of the first leg before turning off but the 2nd leg is always a lot better. Man U were horrible on Saturday but they will have their big guns back tonight....will Rooney be fit? If not then I can see them struggling as I've not known them to put to many European teams to bed early this year and I can see a nervy game until a goal is scored.

Man U are good value @ 1.76 to qualify which I think is better value then taking them straight match odds @ 2.06....I know the chances of 0-0 are slim but the actual odds are horrible @ 8.8 and having that as a saver along with a straight Match Bet @ 2.06 gives you no value then just taking 1.76 for the whole tie just in case it does go all the way.

I'm not a big fan of laying odds against prices BUT Barcelona to qualify in 90 minutes is 2.6.....that is far far to low in my opinion and would require either a Barca victory (which would surley hit my 2-1 bet...hopefully) or a scoring draw....I'm willing to take that price on

My other favourite bet of bookings is to much of a toss up as well, I have noticed in recent years that cards seem to be kept in pockets in semi finals as so not to deprive a player of a chance in the final and so I will be taking a watching brief tonight to see what happens in case I fancy taking it for the kick fest at Stamford Bridge.

Recommended Bets

Bunsen

• First Goalscorer
• LOSE 0.5pts - 0.5pts Terry @ 28
• LOSE 0.5pts - 0.5pts Lampard @ 13
• To Score
• LOSE 0.5pts - Essien @ 10
• LOSE 0.5pts - Riise @ 14.5

CalvStar

• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Terry to be shown a card @ 5
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Gerrard to be shown a card @ 6
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Carragher to be shown a card @ 6
• Back 0.5pts Method of victory
• LOSE 1pt - Chelsea v Liverpool Che on pens @ 24 & Liv on pens @ 24
• Back 0.5pts HT/FT
• LOSE 1pt - Chelsea / Liverpool @ 55 & Liverpool / Chelsea @ 34
• Back 0.5pts Correct Score
• LOSE 1pt - Chelsea v Liverpool 2-1 @ 11.5 & 1-2 @ 19
• WIN 2pts - Lay 2pts Barcelona to qualify in 90 minutes @ 2.6
• Back 0.5pts Method of victory
• LOSE 1pt - Man U - Pens @ 26 & Barca - Pens @ 28
• Back 0.5pts HT/FT
• LOSE 1pt - Man U / Barcelona @ 55 & Barcelona / Man U @ 32
• Back 0.5pts Correct Score
• LOSE 1pt - Man U v Barcelona 2-1 @ 11 & 1-2 @ 19

MatchDay Semi Final 2nd Leg -9pts

Season Bets

CalvStar

• Semi Finals
• WIN 4.6pts - Back 5pts Chelsea to qualify @ 1.92
• Quarter Finals
• WIN 2.1pts - Back 3pts Double to qualify Man U + Chelsea @ 1.7
• LOSE 2pts - Back 2pts Schalke to qualify @ 4.5
• 1st Knockout Stage
• LOSE 2pts - Back 2pts Milan to qualify @ 2.02
• LOSE 2pts - Back 2pts Doube to qualify Real Madrid + Chelsea @ 2.04
• LOSE 2pts - Back 2pts Double to qualify Real Madrid + Man U @ 2.43
• WIN 2pts - Back 2pts Double to qualify Chelsea + Man U @ 2
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Treble to qualify Real Madrid + Man U + Chelsea @ 3
• Group Stages
• WIN 2pts - Lay 2pts Benfica to qualify from Group D @ 2.5
• WIN 1.6pts - Back 2pts Porto to qualify from Group A @ 1.8
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Ruud van Nistelrooy to be top goalscorer @ 18
• Outright
• LOSE 2pts - Back 2pts Inter Milan to win @ 12
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt AC Milan to win @ 12
• LOSE 1pt - Back 1pt Real Madrid to win @ 15

Results

• Qualifying Rounds 3.76pts
• WeekDay 1 Total -9.2pts
• WeekDay 2 Total 2.92pts
• WeekDay 3 Total 16.4pts
• WeekDay 4 Total 2.7pts
• WeekDay 5 Total 7.7pts
• WeekDay 6 Total -1.25pts
• WeekDay 2nd Round 1st Leg Total -3.6pts
• WeekDay 2nd Round 2nd Leg Total 13.15pts
• MatchDay Quarter Final 1st Leg 2.5pts
• MatchDay Semi Final 1st Leg 0pts